Case Study

St. Johns County Florida
Multi-year Operating Budget Forecasting Model

PFM has served as St. Johns County's financial advisor for debt transactions since the 1980's. In the summer of 2005 the County requested that PFM assist them in three additional areas: 1) developing a Multi-year forecasting model for its operating budget, 2) completing a capital improvement plan optimization program and 3) performing a fee study to increase the revenues available to the county to ensure appropriate cost recovery. The goal of these projects was to improve the long term financial status of the County and at the same time improve the credit ratings associated with its outstanding debt.

For the Multi-Year Forecast, PFM prepared detailed projections to identify revenues, expenditures and the size of imbalance between recurring revenues and recurring spending in light of historical data, anticipated trends, existing capital program requirements, and costs associated with new policy and service priorities. The analysis resulted in the identification of factors that principally affect fiscal performance and presentation of findings. The model allows the County's financial managers to run "what-if" scenarios, and calculate the impact of savings and revenue initiatives on closing any fiscal gaps that may be identified. These projections were developed in a sophisticated excel model that was transferred to the County financial managers, along with an instruction manual and training. The Model not only is helping the County with its multi-year financial projections, but also building financial department staff capacity.